Europe and Latin America - Shoulder to shoulder for a post-Kyoto Agreement

Progressive climate change is one of the great dangers to a secure and peaceful future of mankind. Even though most world leaders today understand that in theory, it still seems very difficult to draw the right conclusions and act in practice. For centuries mankind has been altering the face of mother earth in order to make use of its riches. But never before did we have the technological capabilities to alter or destroy the earth forever and pre-determine the environmental circumstances under which our offspring will have to live. The risk potential of nuclear technology and genetic engineering are two examples, but the consequences of climate change are already beyond abstract risk calculations. Since climate change is a lagged phenomenon the scientific consensus expects an unavoidable rise of the global mean temperature that will inevitably change our environment and endanger ecosystems in which people have been living for centuries. Again, these consequences will mainly strike the poor and disadvantaged as droughts, desertification and floods mainly affect the poor South of the globe. But the industrialized North will also suffer. Security specialists are preparing the European public for waves of migrants on the run from the devastating effects of climate change. Additionally rising sea levels are democratic: The Netherlands are threatened by it at as much as Bangladesh, even though the Netherlands have more means and resources at hand to adapt. The question is no longer IF climate change will affect us, but HOW MUCH. Can we stay below the threshold of a two degree Celsius warming seen as critical by the IPCC and most other scientists?  

Everything depends on mankind's ability to find a consensus on how to solve the questions of distributive justice when determining each nation's burden share in climate change mitigation. Since the Rio Convention in 1992 the history of climate change mitigation has been one of failures. Kyoto was a failure because the USA, as one of the main polluters, decided to free-ride instead of participating. And the run-up to the Copenhagen Talks in December 2009 has only proved that a post-Kyoto agreement is more than unlikely. US President Barack Obama will not be able to pass legislation on climate change mitigation before the COP 15 talks, the EU has refused, partly thanks to German pressure, to offer tangible figures for the sum they are ready to provide to developing countries in order to lower emission levels and China and India are refusing to make deep cuts in their emission budgets, pointing towards the high historical emissions of the industrialized world and the danger to their economies. UN-Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon recently said that he does not believe that there will be a post-Kyoto Agreement in Copenhagen.

Nevertheless there is hope. The Copenhagen talks have to become a first step towards a tangible and determined post-Kyoto Agreement. Since the US are blocked due to a legislative impasse, hope lies on Europe. And Latin America again would be a perfect ally for pushing the cause of climate change mitigation forward together with "the old continent". Environmental degradation and the consequences of climate change are issues for which awareness is raising rapidly in Latin America. And some Latin American projects and developments indeed are on the fore of the effort of climate change mitigation. For example Ecuador, a country which rich oil resources were tapped by US oil companies in the past, with little consideration for the environment or the natural living space of indigenous people, has suggested to not develop the Ishpingo Tambococha Tiputini oil reservoirs that were found in the Yasuní-National Park. The plan is to sell certificates to protect the national park to donors from developed countries or to take the saving of emissions into consideration when emission caps are set for individual countries in the scope of a global agreement. In Brazil, farmers are beginning to invest into rain forest areas instead of illegally burning them down to win fertile ground for agriculture. They are beginning to grasp the future economic potential of intact rain forest areas as CO2 reservoirs. 

At the same time large Brazilian companies, among them Klabin, Moinho Brasil and Brasilinvest, are promoting sustainable economic activities and environmental protection. Additionally a lot of their CEOs and leading managers recently joined the Brazilian green party. These companies have understood that they need to get involved in environmental and climate politics at home in order to preserve their international credibility. Corporate Social Responsibility is becoming a big deal on the global market and multinational companies of Latin American origin are starting to help to spread the concept to their home region.

This impetus for climate change mitigation in Latin America should not phase-out unused. Europe and Latin America need to push for clear steps towards a post-Kyoto Agreement at the COP 15 talks. Of course Europe and Latin America have different interests when negotiating burden sharing agreements, but the ultimate goal is the same: to ensure that global climate change is reduced to non-catastrophic levels. As long as the US drops out as a global leader and China and India are focusing their energies on minimizing their own commitment, Europe and Latin America are two of the few actors that can still push for decisive measures.

I will attend the COP 15 talks in Copenhagen as an observer for the foundation I am working at. I'm really looking forward to get some insights into the way the talks work and will be sure to post some first hand impressions here.

P.S. (17.11.2009): Things are not always as bright and easy as they seem at first glance. In the scope of the APEC Summit in Shanghai Chile and Peru, together with the other participants including the US, China and Russia,  have declared that they will not try to seal a post-Kyoto Agreement in Copenhagen.
Brazil recently declared that it will only cut it's emissions by 15 percent on a voluntary basis and has thus joined the position of China and India, blocking a real effort of the emerging nations.
The chances for an ambitious agreement on climate change mitigation in the next months have become a good deal slimmer...